It’s that time of year; when you search the channel guide for truTV … when you vehemently defend the tournament chances of a small school you’ve only just heard of … when you park yourself in front of a TV for 12 hours to catch 16 games in a single day. Sure, it’s madness, but that’s March for you.
The men's NCAA Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon and 32 teams are in action across the country. SI Betting broke down two of those matchups below, including the first game of the day and a prime-time matchup that’s sure to be a shootout.
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No. 9 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Game Info: 12:15 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Michigan State -1.5 (-105) | Mississippi State +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: MSU (-113) | MSST (-106)
Total: 130.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-100)
Neither the Spartans nor Bulldogs are particularly hot heading into the Big Dance. Michigan State has lost five out of seven and was bounced by Purdue in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Mississippi State also only has two wins over its last seven games and lost in the SEC quarterfinals to Auburn. In the quarterfinals, though, the Bulldogs blew out Tennessee, 73–56, a dominant win that helped them earn an at-large spot in the field of 68.
Tom Izzo is leading the Spartans (19–14) into their 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, the third-longest streak in college hoops history. Michigan State’s metrics allowed the selection committee to look past its middling record. The seasoned Spartans rank No. 18 in KenPom and No. 24 in the NET rankings despite a 3–9 record against Quad 1 teams. Seniors Tyson Walker (18.2 ppg), Malik Hall (12.6 ppg) and A.J. Hoggard (11 ppg) are the team’s top scorers, and while MSU is solid on offense, Izzo’s squad is a defensive juggernaut. The Spartans allow just 65.9 points per game, one of the lowest marks in DI.
Mississippi State is making its second straight March Madness trip after a First Four loss a season ago. The Bulldogs (21–13) also assembled a strong resume despite a losing record in conference play. They come in at No. 30 in KenPom and No. 31 in NET. Freshman Josh Hubbard (17.1 ppg) leads the team in scoring and he and senior Tolu Smith (15.2 ppg) are the only two Mississippi State players who average double digits. Hubbard is one of 21 players in the country who’s made at least 100 three-pointers, though the Bulldogs are a poor shooting team overall as they’re under 33% from deep and worse than 68% at the free throw line. Mississippi State is also a defense-first team, allowing only 69.1 points per game.
It’s not often Michigan State gets sent home early. The Spartans went to the Sweet 16 a season ago, though they did fall in the Round of 32 in 2022 and First Four in 2021. More often than not, Izzo’s teams are a good bet to be playing in the second week of the tournament. The same cannot be said for the Bulldogs, who have not won a game in their last three appearances.
Michigan State is 18–8 straight up as a favorite this year and Mississippi State is 3–7 as an underdog. Don’t mess around with the points in what’s bound to be a tight, defensive battle — just take the Spartans to win.
Bet: Michigan State Moneyline (-113)